Futurist Discusses Disaster Management

Emergency response can be short term and reactive in face of looming disasters. And so linking up with the science for understanding how to respond to worrying long term trends like climate change that suddenly seems to be speeding up has become very relevant.

These thoughts came from Shane Roberts, a futurist and forecaster whose day job lies with the Canadian federal department of Public Safety Canada. But in a recent interview he stressed he was speaking personally. 

"We have to be careful not to get too absorbed in just today's headlines and today's problems. Watch out for those things that can sneak up on us because they have long cycles."

He notes that scientists have "heightened" our awareness of potential catastrophes facing the planet, whether it is the ongoing destruction to the environment or decades old stockpiling of nuclear weapons.

"Science and technology helps us to understand forces and processes and their trends and cycles which spawn, shape and reshape factors in risks."

Shane ranged over a wide range of disaster scenarios including both the realistic and apocalyptical at a panel during at the World Conference on Disaster Management in June in Toronto.

He talked about the threats like fires, floods, storms and flu epidemics that have been with us for some time and appear to be occurring with greater frequency because of a host of factors, as well as new and unforeseen hazards and threats.

Shane offers a list of different kinds of risks -- emerging (i.e. synthetic life forms or nanotechnology), persistent (human violence), re-emerging scourges (malaria, tuberculosis) and old but an emergency (asteroids, solar storms, super volcanoes and mega earthquakes).
Roberts offered four strategic questions for emergency planners in the area of evolution of society, risk and preparedness.

One is that emergency planners have to apply science and historical analysis to determine trends and potential surprises that could reshape the world, as well as what that the future might entail.

Also, there are new sets of risks (human made/natural threats and vulnerabilities) that will affect public security in one's own country and the wider world?

Then, what new or enhanced capabilities for emergency management can reduce these risks of threat and vulnerabilities?

Finally, how can current and foreseeable advances in science and technology assist emergency planners to develop new capabilities?

With greater scientific knowledge emergency response, planners should have the ammunition to convince the politicians of the seriousness of a particular scenario such as extreme weather, melting glaciers and droughts stemming from climate change in some regions and the necessity to invest in mitigation and prevention strategies.

One might say that approach may be easier said than done for predicted rising sea levels along the California coast that could happen over the next century well past most people's lifetimes versus a more immediate flu epidemic that has already taken some lives.
Nevertheless, Shane Roberts is an optimist, suggesting that human societies have come a long way in terms of responding to some emergencies because of better planning and technical expertise.

"I have 15 nieces and nephews and in a way I fear for them with the challenges they face. But at the same time when you look at how far we have come on a daily basis and how much we are able to protect ourselves, there is a room for cautious optimism."

The Canadian province of Manitoba, for instance, managed to escape spring flooding of the north-south Red River basin because of local diversion strategies undertaken.  In contrast south of the US Canadian border in North Dakota along the same river the lack of precautionary actions culminated in local cities like Grand Forks being covered by water and 50,000 people fleeing their homes.

Photo Chris Dessaigne. CC Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 2.0 Generic