I am fascinated with the newspaper industry and where it is heading. It seems that the consensus is that the industry as a whole is dead and kicking, in other words, it is quite alive, but losing profitability.
Alive
According to an NAA presentation Scarborough Research reported that in 2008, 100 Million adults read a newspaper on an average weekday. Now, that's not dead by any stretch. The same report puts it in perspective: 98 million adults watched the Superbowl, 63 million watched the world series, 60 million watch any reality television show, and 42 million visit amazon.com.
According to Comscore Research, newspaper websites are #1 in 22 of the 25 top markets. Scarborough Research adds to that that 42% of all Internet users visit a newspaper website at least once a month.
Nielsen Research reports that in January of 2009, 75 million unique visitors (which does not include re-visits, of course) visited a newspaper website).
These are good stats, and should cheer any newspaperman.
Even so, according to this presentation, "Newspapers are not as profitable as they were a year ago or even two years ago. Many newspapers have dropped from a 30% margin to maybe a ten to fifteen percent margin... Overall, the beleaguered newspaper industry's financial health has been weakened but remains healthy by most measures. In this environment, that is an achievement."
How?
The presentation goes on to report that "Newspapers are expanding the growing list of digital products and niches. Proctor and Gamble realized years ago that consumers want their toothpaste in a variety of ways. From the days of one size and one flavor, they have offered dozens of options to meet consumers needs, from pastes to gels to whiteners to breath fresheners etc. Newspapers today are recognizing that their consumers too, enjoy their newspaper in a variety of ways and it is our job to deliver that newspaper to them in whatever form they require.
"Beyond the web sites, you are seeing more newspapers offering mobile applications, some newspapers experimenting with e-readers, newspapers working with printers on personalized newspapers and more. The bottom line here is that our reader's needs must be met and we are in the information industry not printers. We are moving quickly to meet those changing needs."
Strengths
Why do 100 million adults pick up a newspaper every day? Sure, a lot of that is from sheer momentum: generations have done precisely that. But more importantly, most are after local new, and the newspaper industry recognizes that.
"Newspapers remain at the heart of the local conversation. No one tells consumers more about what is going on in the community than newspapers. For advertisers, newspapers are finding incremental ways to target locally. Newspapers are inserting themselves as the hub of community information and interactions, providing platforms to share local content, host discussions and provide in-depth community information.
"Most of this centers around Geographic communities, e.g. TribLocal, Bluffton Today. The, New York Times plans to provide hyper-local blogs for various metro area communities, etc.
"In print, newspaper readership declined a modest 2.7 percent from 2007 to 2008, according to Scarborough Research. Meanwhile, TV networks lost 7 percent of their total audience in the last 3 months of 2008 alone."
Prediction
I believe that if the industry focus on its "local" strengths, and widely diversify it's delivery vehicles: e-Readers like Sony Reader and Kindle (which just released the Kindle DX, featuring a considerably larger display to facilitate reading newspapers/magazines)--and, as Rupert Murdoch has recently indicated, begin to charge a (reasonable) fee for their online content--then the newspaper industry will resurrect itself famously.
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