Disaster Around the Corner?

Last week, President-elect Obama urged Congress to postpone the long planned February 17th 2009 retirement of the analog television signal, citing problems with the plan and that too many Americans--those who still depend on roof-antennas and rabbit-ears--would be left without television service should the switch go ahead.

Now, aside from the fact that considering today's less than stellar programming quality this may be a blessing in disguise, it does put the FCC and the television companies in a bind: to turn analog off or not. A question with quite a few repercussions.

It was the Obama transition team co-chair John Podesta who on Thursday last week suggested that the digital transition needs to be delayed primarily because the Commerce Department has now run out of money for coupons to subsidize digital TV converter boxes for consumers.

In part, Podesta's letter--addressed to top Democrats and Republicans on the Senate and House Commerce committees--said, "With coupons unavailable, support and education insufficient, and the most vulnerable Americans exposed, I urge you to consider a change to the legislatively mandated analog cutoff date."

One response to this letter came from California Democrat Henry Waxman, Chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, who acknowledged that the transition to digital only television was not going as smoothly as hoped for, and indeed admitted that millions of Americans could experience serious problems--as in losing television reception--come February 17.

He went on to say, "We also know that many Americans will experience difficulties connecting their converter boxes, that there could soon be a shortage of boxes, and that the federal government is not prepared to answer the many questions confused consumers will have.

"I am reviewing the President-elect's letter and will work with his team and my colleagues to address the problems created by this poorly managed program," he concluded.

Now, on the other side of this coin we find the face of somewhat controversial FCC Chairman Kevin Martin, who took questions on this very topic at the International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

"Ultimately," he said. "This is Congress' decision." But he goes on to say, "we've spent a lot of time and energy getting ready for the February 17 date. I am concerned about the consumer confusion that would be created.

Martin also pointed out that "This transition has been a huge challenge for the industry," and that most broadcasting--marching to the February 17 drum, has not provided any budget fro continued analog transmission after that date, leaving them in quite a financial pickle should Congress decided to prolong analog transmission.

And this decision affects not only consumers and television companies, but also those wireless operators who have already bought the freed-up analogue and plan to use it for next-generation 4G broadband networks.

So, should Congress pick another day, to let the Government's efforts to smooth the transition? Martin disagrees. "The concern is that whatever date we pick again, people won't believe. What kind of a message will that send if we've been telling everyone that is the date and we don't do it?"

I, for one, agree with Martin. The February 17 date is not news, it has been the target date for years, and the DTV plan has been in the works since the 1990s. It seems to me to be another one of those issues that are symptomatic of our tendency to view anything planned for "down the road" to always remain down the road, to then surprise the daylight out of us when the date arrives.

I also believe that postponing the date would create more confusion, and would leave the country no less able to cope with the conversion as if it happens now--for as we go ahead with the February 17th date, the impact will suddenly shift from projections and guesswork to reality, and then--and now with the urgency of having to react--the FCC and Congress, as needed, can do something about bridging this particular Digital Divide as soon as possible.